The Akan Factor: Bawumia vs. the NDC Elite in New Poll | Discuss Ghana

A fresh tracking poll from Global InfoAnalytics has revealed a fascinating shift in voter sentiment, particularly among the influential Akan demographic. According to the latest data released today, Monday, May 4, 2026, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia continues to hold a dominant lead over almost every potential NDC candidate among Akan voters—with one notable exception.

The poll, which tracks preferences for the 2028 election cycle (assuming a post-Mahama era), indicates that while Dr. Bawumia is the "Akan favorite" for the NPP, his toughest competition from the opposition is the current Minority Leader, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson.

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Key Findings: The Akan Vote

The Akan demographic is widely considered the "kingmaker" in Ghanaian elections, and the poll suggests the NPP’s "Akan-Northern" hybrid strategy is yielding complex results.

Bawumia’s Dominance: Among Akan voters, Dr. Bawumia outperforms high-profile NDC names like Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, Julius Debrah, and Joshua Alabi. His "digitalization" track record and economic lectures appear to still resonate strongly with the Ashanti and Central Region middle class.

The "Ato Forson" Exception: Dr. Ato Forson is the only NDC figure who currently statistically ties or slightly edges out Bawumia in specific Akan-dominated areas. Analysts attribute this to his roots in the Central Region and his visibility as the "voice of the economy" in Parliament.

Floating Voter Appeal: The poll also notes that 44% of floating voters and a surprising 41% of NPP voters view Dr. Ato Forson favorably as a potential future leader, suggesting he has cross-party appeal that other NDC stalwarts lack.

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Regional Breakdown: The Central Swing

The data highlights the Central Region as the primary battleground where the "Akan loyalty" is being tested.

Home Turf Advantage: As a native of the Central Region, Dr. Ato Forson’s performance in the poll suggests the NDC could potentially "reclaim" the region in a post-Mahama scenario.

The Ashanti Stronghold: Dr. Bawumia maintains a commanding 57% lead in the Ashanti Region against any potential NDC flagbearer, reinforcing his status as the NPP’s best bet to maintain their core base.

The "Ablakwa" Surge: While he trails Bawumia among Akans, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa is the runaway favorite among Gen Z and Millennial voters across all tribes, scoring highest on "integrity" and "accountability" metrics.